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Biden looks good if you don’t look too closely

Joe Biden remains the so-called front-runner in the various recent polls at 26 percent of the vote – and he has slipped from a 35 percent lead after the first Democratic Party debate.  That is not necessarily good news for the former Vice President.

The significance of recent surveys is not just Biden’s numbers but the shift in numbers for other candidates – especially those in double digits.  The relative upward improvement of both Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Kamala Harris has been widely reported but still underappreciated.

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According to the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, Biden’s 26 percent lead is followed by Warren at 19% and Harris and Senator Bernie Sanders tied at 13 percent.  Those four account for 71 percent of the responses.  That is significant.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg garners 7 percent with former Congressman – and former superstar – Beto O’Rourke tied with businessman Andrew Yang at two percent.  The remaining 16 or so candidates are at one percent or below – so low that none of them will be on the stage for the next debate at the end of July unless the Democratic National Committee changes the rules.  This means that virtually all of them will be officially or effectively out of the race before Labor Day.

One thing we have not seen in polling is the voters second choice.  In a multi-candidate race, that is an EXTREMELY important bit of information.  Even with polling data, we can see a dark-hole effect in the race between Warren and Sanders.  Most of Sanders probably terminal drop in the polls has been to the benefit of Warren.  She was naturally Sanders supporters’ second choice – now first choice.

If you look at the three candidates giving Biden the greatest challenge – Warren, Harris and Sanders – they represent the progressive wing of the Democratic Party AND they cumulatively have 45 percent of the vote – with another 11 percent held by progressives Buttigieg, Yang and O’Rourke.  Concentrate that into one candidate, and that person easily overtakes Biden – and that does not count the distribution of the remaining 18 percent of the vote currently held by the hopeless wannabes.

Where does that vote go?

Since only two or three of them represent more moderate – more accurately, less left-wing – positions, it is safe to assume that the numbers would break in favor of a Biden challenger.

If that sole challenger is Harris, Biden is in even deeper trouble.  He currently holds 46 percent of the black vote.  If Harris is seen as a serious potential candidate – and potential President – Biden’s support from the black community will most certainly decline in the primaries.  One needs to recall that Hillary Clinton was holding onto the black vote until Barack Obama won the Ohio primary – which resulted in a seismic shift in the black vote to the black candidate.

If the sole challenger to Biden winds up to be Warren, Biden could hold much of his black support.  For a few reasons, Warren is drawing only 8 percent of the black vote – the lowest of any of the four leading candidates who have reached double digits.  But unless Biden can remarkably improve his black vote, it is hard to see how he would hold on against a flow of progressive votes going to his yet-to-be-determined progressive competitor – Warren, in this case.

Biden currently has a perceived advantage, but that is only if you do not look below the surface.  His situation is like a long-distance runner who starts out at top speed to get to the front – but is sure to run out of energy before the race is over.

So, there ‘tis.

 

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14 Comments on this post.
  • NavyPO2
    15 July 2019 at 3:40 pm
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    Kamala Harris hates Christians, especially Catholics! Want proof? Check the Supreme Court Kavenaugh hearings!

    • Billie R Hayworth
      17 July 2019 at 10:33 pm
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      …..and we hate Kamala Harris! In fact, her mother doesn’t even like her. She should be run out of this country w/o the possibility of returning in her lifetime! We hate her that mental midget much!
      Billie Hayworth!

  • Hal Lemoyne
    15 July 2019 at 3:45 pm
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    BIDEN LOOKS GOOD IF YOU DON’T LOOK TOO CLOSELY
    ——–
    Not True
    All the demoncratic candidates are fearfully running around like

    chicken with it’s head cut off

    BUT that the actual uneducated common’core practice

    of all the hateful neverTRUMP politicians

    they haven’t a clue on how to get past their distant 10th place in running against

    our US President TRUMP is #1 and he a magnanimous common’sense #1 unbeatable

    and he knows how to very easily sustain his US Leadership Lead

    in keeping far ahead of his very successful US gainings
    Amen & Amen!!!

  • Philip Simon
    16 July 2019 at 5:18 pm
    Leave a Reply

    Biden smiles which means you see something, do not vote for it, call out what you believe you see and hear, but bet your next 4 years on Trump.

    • Billie R Hayworth
      17 July 2019 at 10:35 pm
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      I see something alright! A five foot something big brown pile of crap! If it grins like it’s been eating the stuff, smells like the stuff…..IT’S THE STUFF!
      BH

  • Philip Simon
    16 July 2019 at 5:20 pm
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    Soccer balls are for kicks, Donald would defeat Magane in a slap shot move to the goal 0f 2020 election for Prez.

    • MarhsAll
      16 July 2019 at 7:05 pm
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      Biden is the likely contender and Trump will lose his throne. It is in the cards. Just wait and see.

  • MARTHA LEE VINCENT
    16 July 2019 at 5:20 pm
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    BIDEN DOESN’T SEEM TO TOTALLY BELIEVE IN ANY POLICY CHOICES HE TALKS ABOUT, BUT CHANGES HIS MIND DAILY , AS DOES KAMALA HARRIS! SO I REALLY WOULDN’T TRUST HIM OR KAMALA HARRIS TO REMAIN TRUE TO THEIR PROMISES !

  • MaryAnn Hewitt
    16 July 2019 at 9:22 pm
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    the new democrats are interesting – lets see – they hate our president – they hate Jews – I am sure the Muslim hates Jews – the all hate White people – they all hate America & want to change it in some way – which is why we need to give Trump another term – he is not afraid of them –

  • Bruce
    17 July 2019 at 5:40 pm
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    Only a Idiot would say Biden looks good in Any light. He IS a Racist, Idiot who is a embarrisment to the country. He was a fool even as Vice president. He should be investigated for his under handed actions from now back to before he was VPOTUS.

  • Richard
    19 July 2019 at 4:07 pm
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    Biden trying to portray he has all this energy, running up to the mic. He never did that. !0 will get you 50 he fines a reason to drop out or he will lose to Warren or Harris. Joey will be a 3 time loser. lol He lost 2 times before so what makes him think he will pull it off now that he 78 and a history of doing nothing while a senator and being an embarrassment to Obama saying stupid thing while vice president.

  • john carlisle
    12 August 2019 at 4:12 pm
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    Nice accurate article ,,Biden’s in front,, for now!! Watch out ,
    Harris might just pull this out ,, if so, lots of urban black voters in key areas,another Barak Obumma
    is upon us delivered by a Liberal Press that hates intelligent voters ,,look out , Harris could be a night mare come true !!

  • GEORGE
    19 August 2019 at 7:25 pm
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    biden IS ONE WORTHLESS SCUM SOB

  • GEORGE
    19 August 2019 at 7:26 pm
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    THE EPOCH TIMES = ONE GREAT CONSERVATIVE NEWSPAPER

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