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EAST COAST ON STORM ALERT…

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EAST COAST ON STORM ALERT…

Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is crawling just off Florida’s Atlantic coast and will head to the Carolinas, then up the East Coast as far north as New England, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge flooding to some areas.

A watch means the respective conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.

A hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast in case Isaias is able to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.

Tropical storm warnings extend as far north as Delaware. Tropical storm watches extend as far north as parts of coastal southern New England.

Isaias is currently centered just off the Florida’s northeast Coast. While much of the rainfall from the storm is located to the north and east of its center of circulation, some outer bands of rain are wrapping ashore, or will soon do so, as far north as the Georgia coast.

Occasional gusts from 40 to 50 mph have been clocked at various reporting stations along Florida’s Atlantic coast, including Vero Beach.

Isaias is forecast to maintain its intensity as a strong tropical storm or may tick up a bit to briefly regain hurricane status making landfall Monday night or early Tuesday in South Carolina or southeast North Carolina.

From there, the storm will sweep quickly northeastward near parts of the Northeast Seaboard to as far north as New England Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Areas near the Florida Atlantic coast could see tropical storm conditions (winds 39 to 73 mph) spread northward through Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions will move to coastal Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina on Monday, then into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.

Remember, winds will be strongest near the coast and in high rise buildings.

There could be scattered power outages and some tree damage in areas that experience stronger wind gusts.

Storm Surge

Dangerous storm surge flooding is possible in parts of the Carolinas.

A storm surge warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet, above ground level, is expected if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The highest surge should occur immediately to the east of where Isaias is expected to move ashore.

The high tide of most concern in the Carolinas is Monday evening.

According to the National Weather Service, minor flooding is expected in downtown Charleston, South Carolina, during that high tide Monday evening.

Otherwise, a surge of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible from northeast Florida to southern South Carolina, as well as the rest of the North Carolina coast, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, the Virginia Tidewater, Chesapeake Bay and the Tidal Potomac River.

Swells generated by Isaias will ride up the East Coast ahead of Isaias, leading to high surf and the danger of rip currents. The high surf may only slowly fall after Isaias passes.

Rainfall Flooding

Isaias has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals along its path early this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

-Eastern Florida: 1 to 2 additional inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

-Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches

-Carolinas and mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches

-Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

The heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding in some of these areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible in parts of the eastern states.

For more on possible impacts in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, read our latest discussion here.

Tornadoes

Isaias could also spawn short-lived tornadoes along its path up the East Coast.

An isolated threat is possible beginning late Monday and early Tuesday from coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia.

The chance of an isolated tornado could spread to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Storm History

Isaias is the earliest named ninth Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. The previous record was Irene on Aug. 7, 2005.

Typically the ninth named tropical system occurs in the Atlantic basin in early October, meaning this year’s pace is over two months ahead of average.